Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is embarking on a transit trip to Lithuania this week for the NATO summit, where crucial decisions will be made. These decisions have significant implications as they pertain to the expansion of coalition membership and strengthening the coalition’s defense. Canada finds itself at the forefront, grappling with challenging choices that shape its role in the Ukraine conflict and determine the allocation of defense spending. These decisions will ultimately define Canada’s status as a steadfast ally.
Trudeau departed Ottawa on Sunday night, en route to Riga, Latvia. He will hold an important meeting with Latvian leaders on Monday before heading to the Lithuanian capital for the NATO meeting on Tuesday.
During the previous summit in Madrid, NATO leaders unequivocally identified Russia as the most dangerous and urgent threat to the security, peace, and stability of the Allies in the Euro-Atlantic region. This alarming revelation led to the development of a strategic plan to enhance defense and security in the region. Subsequently, during a meeting in Brussels in March 2022, leaders agreed to deploy four new battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia to strengthen existing deployments in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
NATO has now devised a new defense strategy, which leaders will discuss and agree upon in Vilnius. The plan proposes a return to the alliance’s core functions, reminiscent of the Cold War era. According to NATO historian and University of Toronto professor Tim Sayle, this shift will inevitably lead to conflicts in defense policy among members and debates about whether to include Sweden and Ukraine. The world will closely monitor Canada’s position and performance throughout these negotiations.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, articulated the tripartite nature of the new defense strategy during a briefing on July 3. It is divided into the Eastern region (including the Mediterranean and the Black Sea), the Central Region (stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Alps), and the High North region and the Atlantic landmass. These regions will require meticulous maneuvering and the acquisition of necessary skills to mobilize larger and well-equipped forces as per the plan. Naturally, these efforts will require additional funding. Unfortunately, only about one-third of NATO member states currently meet the agreement to allocate 2 percent of their global gross domestic product to defense spending, with one-fifth of the budget dedicated to equipment. Admiral Bauer hopes that by the end of the meeting, two percent will be established as the minimum expenditure requirement, rather than just an aspirational target.
As NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu noted on July 3, the crucial link between the new defense plan, the investment defense agreement, and NATO’s defense planning process has never been clearer. Countries that lag behind in defense spending will face increasing pressure to boost their financial contributions.
Currently, Canada spends approximately 1.3 percent of its GDP on defense but has not disclosed its plans to meet the current targets. Defense Minister Anita Anand maintains that Canada’s focus should be on contributing to Ukraine’s defense and leading the NATO battlegroup in Latvia, considering them top priorities.
Before the NATO meeting, Trudeau is scheduled to hold an important meeting on Monday with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics and Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins. He will also meet dedicated members of the Canadian Armed Forces participating in the country’s largest overseas mission, demonstrating Canada’s commitment to international security.
Unfortunately, Canada seems to lag behind even in Latvia. Despite Defense Minister Anand’s promise to deploy the battle group more than a year ago, detailed plans are still being negotiated. A battlegroup typically comprises about 1,000 soldiers, while a brigade involves around 3,000 troops. Although Canada has committed to sending a tank squadron with 15 Leopard 2 tanks and approximately 130 personnel to Latvia starting this fall, the number of additional troops to join the 800 Canadians already stationed there remains uncertain.
In contrast, other countries have made more promising commitments. For instance, Germany has pledged to deploy a brigade of 4,000 troops in Lithuania. Moreover, the United Kingdom, leading one group of fighters in Estonia, and the United States, leading another in Poland, have demonstrated their ability to swiftly increase their military presence to the level of a brigade last year.
Another significant focus of the meeting will revolve around Sweden and Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Despite last-minute efforts by Turkey and Hungary to garner support for Sweden, success has been elusive. Notably, Sweden’s neighbor, the Scandinavian country Finland, recently joined NATO in April.
Admiral Bauer made it clear that if Sweden’s membership is approved, adjusting the defense plan accordingly will not require extensive effort. Given Sweden’s active participation in the NATO Military Committee and the North Atlantic Council on a weekly basis, they have a good understanding of the organization’s agenda.
However, the question of Ukraine’s accession remains controversial, with some countries advocating for immediate membership. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace expressed a desire to accelerate the process. In response, Trudeau maintained that Canada supports Ukraine’s accession “when the conditions are right,” without explicitly clarifying the decisive factors. Given the significance of this decision, it is understood that other countries are seeking a stronger stance. The outcome will have a significant impact on the strategic calculations between Ukraine and Russia in the ongoing conflict and will shape the prospects for future peace.
