Russia’s Strategic Measures in Response to Ukrainian Counteroffensive
RIGA, Latvia — With Ukraine’s counteroffensive looming, Russia has spent the past seven months meticulously preparing its forces. This comprehensive preparation includes strengthening reserves, reinforcing artillery and aviation support, increasing ammunition and fuel stockpiles, and procuring additional drones. As a result, Russia has fortified its positions in southeast Ukraine, erecting an extensive network of defenses consisting of trenches, fortifications, and minefields spanning the 900-mile front line from Zaporizhzhia to Russia’s Belgorod region.
While military experts have identified certain weaknesses in Russia’s defensive plan, the robust fortifications have already proven effective in impeding offensive operations and creating chokepoints for the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian forces are forced to navigate through narrow passages, enabling Russia to regroup and concentrate its firepower more effectively. Dara Massicot, a Russian military expert at Rand Corp, stated, “They’ve had ample time to devise a defensive plan, utilizing the terrain and laying traps and mines during their six-month tenure. They are as confident as they can be in understanding their defensive lines.”
Despite the anticipation surrounding Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the territorial gains have been limited, encompassing a mere 40 square miles. In stark contrast, Russia currently controls approximately 33,000 square miles, over 800 times the area captured by Ukraine. Speculation suggests that Ukraine may be withholding the majority of its attack brigades, but experts argue that judging Russia’s weakness based on last year’s military failures is misleading. Offensive operations inherently pose challenges, with attacking forces typically incurring higher casualties compared to defenders. This year, Ukraine finds itself in the role of the aggressor, while Russia benefits from prepared positions.
Russia’s extensive fortifications have stretched its troop strength, making it challenging to deploy along all defensive lines. The Zaporizhzhia region, a critical axis for Ukraine’s counterattack, is heavily fortified with trenches, obstacles, and cement antitank structures known as dragon’s teeth. Additionally, a significant number of landmines are scattered across southeast Ukraine, posing considerable challenges for Ukrainian breach operations. Russia has also demonstrated the effective use of drones, such as the domestically produced Lancet, which have successfully targeted and disabled Western military equipment, including artillery systems, light armored vehicles, and tanks.
The recent upsurge in self-detonating drones employed by Russian forces has further complicated Ukrainian operations. Russian state media enthusiastically reports the success of Lancet drones in striking high-value targets within the special military operation zone. These drones can be deployed to land on vehicles and disable them, representing an escalating threat to Ukrainian forces. Russia has also intensified the utilization of its aviation assets, as leaked videos show close-range attacks, departing from previous tactics that relied on long-distance firing to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukraine’s vulnerability lies in its limited aviation support, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to request F-16 jets. While allies have been granted permission to supply the aircraft, it will take several months to train Ukrainian crews for their operation. Military expert Pavel Luzin, from the Jamestown Foundation, acknowledges Russia’s quantitative superiority in terms of air power and artillery but highlights deficiencies in manpower, weaponry, command structure, and effective leadership.
Although Russia’s forces have improved compared to last year, they still face challenges. Some units maintain relative stability, primarily composed of mobilized individuals with varying levels of training. Moscow has made efforts to enhance its command structure and discipline by appointing Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to lead the overall war effort and offensive operations. Subordinates such as Gen. Sergei Surovikin and Col. Gen. Mikhail Teplinsky have helped address initial flaws and boost morale, particularly in key forces like the airborne troops.
President Vladimir Putin has also sought to exert stricter control over mercenaries and volunteer battalions, mandating their transition to official army contracts. However, internal disagreements persist on this matter. Putin claims that Russia has significantly increased arms production, but doubts have been raised regarding these assertions based on available government statistics.
Russia’s concerns about Ukraine’s superior night fighting capabilities, attributed to their advanced thermal optics, have prompted family members of Russian soldiers to seek donations for night vision systems. While the outcome of the counteroffensive remains uncertain, analysts caution against premature predictions. The primary test for the Ukrainian army lies in its ability to penetrate Russian lines and engage in large-scale infantry combat. Russia’s strategy revolves around keeping Ukrainian forces at bay through minefields and artillery strikes, avoiding direct confrontations with its soldiers.
